From Stability to Positive Waves? Why America's Economic Compass No Longer Points True North
Nyenta.com/10327427

NEW YORK - Nyenta -- M Capital Group ("MCG") released its economic outlook report, Rewriting America's Economic Rulebook – Signals Through Unsatisfactory Noise, contending that recent macroeconomic data paints a mixed picture of strength.

The U.S. economy stock markets seem to continue its journey, while the private sector is showing signs of breath grasps. Household debt reached $18.4 trillion in Q2, with 4.4% of balances delinquent, the highest in more than a decade. Delinquencies are especially elevated among lower-income cohorts, with over 10% of student loan debt now 90+ days past due. Corporate defaults have also accelerated that defaults among private middle-market borrowers rose to a 5.5% rate in Q2, while new issuance has contracted 16% year-over-year. Business investment has cooled, particularly in long-cycle infrastructure and manufacturing segments exposed to volatile input costs, with prices for key materials such as steel, copper, and aluminum climbing 29% to 34% year-to-date.

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Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate to 4.00–4.25% at its September meeting, marking the first move cut since early 2023. Futures markets see mixed odds of additional cuts before year-end. While headline inflation has moderated, core services inflation remains above 4%, and labor market data point to a gradual softening. Monetary clarity has faded, and policy friction has become the new norm. MCG emphasizes that the return of tariffs and industrial policy is a permanent redrawing of the economic map.

The report highlights how recent policy moves are redefining America's economic architecture. Key inputs have surged in price by 29% to 34%, eroding manufacturer margins, down by as much as 22%, from 15.3% to 11.9%, and leaving firms increasingly cautious with capital investments, which have declined 8.7% year-on-year as of Q2 2025. At the same time, the Federal Reserve is grasping with interest rates, amid sticky core inflation, creating a prolonged "higher-for-longer" regime that complicates investment planning.

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Christian Mouchbahani, Managing Partner at M Capital Group reflected that: "We are witnessing the unwinding of the post-2008 macro playbook. This is not a crisis, but a rewriting of a new order since WWII. Strategy will matter to navigate un-certainty."

Looking ahead, M Capital Group views the next 12–18 months as a period for deliberate positioning. The emerging global economic order could reshape the way businesses, investors, and consumers operate. Trade flows may shift toward regional blocks. Capital markets could see deeper fragmentation, prompting new approaches to portfolio diversification and risk pricing. For investors, asset allocation strategies may tilt toward real assets and policy-aligned sectors. For businesses, agility in sourcing and market targeting will be essential. In this environment, MCG expects outperformance will come from institutions able to adapt to a slower, more fragmented cycle.

Website: https://www.mcapital-group.com