Will Humanity Achieve a Century of Nuclear Peace? New Study Forecasts Nuclear Risk
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NEW YORK, Oct. 28, 2024 ~ As the world faces an increasingly uncertain global security environment, the question of whether humanity will make it to the centenary anniversary of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki without any further nuclear catastrophes looms large. With tensions escalating globally and nuclear-armed states modernizing their arsenals, this concern is more pressing than ever before.

In response to this pressing issue, Open Nuclear Network (ONN), a Programme of PAX sapiens, and the Forecasting Research Institute (FRI) have joined forces to produce a groundbreaking study. This report, titled "Can Humanity Achieve a Century of Nuclear Peace? Expert Forecasts of Nuclear Risk," brings together insights from over 150 nuclear policy experts and super-forecasters to provide a comprehensive assessment of the current nuclear risks and offer actionable policy solutions.

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The report will be presented during a hybrid side event at the 79th Session of the UN General Assembly First Committee on Disarmament and International Security. Titled "A Gamble of Our Own Choosing: Forecasting Strategies to Reduce Nuclear Risks," this event will take place on October 30, 2024, at 13:15 EDT in New York. It offers a valuable opportunity for attendees to participate in an interactive forecasting exercise.

According to Andreas Persbo, Director of the Open Nuclear Network, "Thinking about nuclear risks in terms of probabilities allows for a more precise understanding of potential threats." This approach is crucial as it enables policymakers to better comprehend the likelihood and severity of potential nuclear catastrophes.

The study finds that there is a median expert forecast estimating a 5% probability of a nuclear catastrophe by 2045. This is defined as an event causing over 10 million deaths. However, super-forecasters place this probability lower at 1%, reflecting varying views on the severity of nuclear threats.

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The report also highlights Russia-NATO/USA tensions as the most likely geopolitical source for a nuclear catastrophe. It identifies six key policies that could reduce the risk by 50% if fully implemented. These recommendations include establishing a secure crisis communications network and conducting comprehensive failsafe reviews of nuclear protocols.

Josh Rosenberg, CEO of the Forecasting Research Institute, hopes that "this research will help policymakers better understand the most likely sources of nuclear risk and the most promising policies to address these risks." The report serves as a critical resource for policymakers, academics, and civil society, offering both a warning about the potential risks ahead and a roadmap to a more secure future.

This report builds on previous work presented at the 2024 NPT Preparatory Committee in Geneva, where preliminary findings sparked significant debate within the nuclear policy community. As tensions continue to rise globally, this final report serves as an essential tool for navigating the complex landscape of nuclear risks and promoting global security.

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